Estimating Active Case of Infectious Disease Using Seird Model; Case of Covid-19 Diseases in Malaysia

Azrul Azim  Mohd Yunus; Shahrina  Ismail; Arif Asraf  Mohd Yunus; Muhammad Safwan  Ibrahim; Shaharudin  Ismail

doi:10.37934/ard.125.1.19

Authors

Azrul Azim Mohd Yunus Risk and Analytics Research Group, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Shahrina Ismail Department of Financial Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Arif Asraf Mohd Yunus Department of Financial Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Muhammad Safwan Ibrahim Department of Financial Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Shaharudin Ismail Department of Information Security and Assurance, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37934/ard.125.1.19

Keywords:

COVID-19, SEIRD model, Malaysia, coefficient for infection , recovery rate, death rate

Abstract

The global outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has unleashed widespread turmoil. The number of confirmed cases continues to rise, and numerous countries exhibit a persistent upward trajectory in daily infections. In an effort to predict the trajectory of active cases, we employed the SEIRD mathematical model, which provides a visual representation of the ongoing spread of COVID-19. SEIRD models were used to estimate and visualize the trend of active cases, recovery, and death during the infection period. Using the lmfit package in Python, the solution for Non-Linear Least-Square Minimization was provided and minimalizes the error for the curve-fitting, thus giving the optimal number for the coefficient for infection, recovery rate, and death rate. It is important to estimate the current trend of an active case in Malaysia as early action can minimize the effect of COVID-19 infections.